Notes
One finding, one chart, and what it means.
A UK small business pays 280 basis points over Bank Rate
What British and euro-area companies pay their banks, and how much more the small ones pay.
The private loans falling due soonest pay the most, and more of them pay in kind
The maturity wall in the private credit books, by year, spread and payment in kind.
140 gigawatts waiting for money
Projects with a signed grid connection and no construction are the clearest public list of capital about to be needed.
Regulation A companies sell a median 11% of what they register
What Regulation A offerings actually raise against what they register.
Texas advertises its private raises. California fills them.
How the fifteen busiest states raise private money, and how often it works.
The second raise is written by fewer, larger cheques
How the investors in a company change from its first raise to its fifth.
Oil and gas raises are the hardest private raises to fill
Which industries fill their private raises, and which do not.
Industry barely moves the price of a private loan. It moves how the interest is paid.
Spreads and payment-in-kind by industry, from the loan books of the business development companies.
Pre-revenue raises sell in full one time in five
Revenue more than doubles the odds that a private raise sells in full.
Fifteen months between raises
Companies that raise privately come back on a clock, and the clock varies less by industry than you might think.
Texas raises fill less often than California's, even in technology
Where a company raises changes how often the raise fills, inside the same industry.
Above $100m, half of private raises sell less than half
How private raises change as they get larger, in fill rates, agents, investors and cheques.
Second lien costs 225 basis points more than first lien
What each place in the repayment queue costs, read from 31,676 private loans.
Equity crowdfunding raises a median $122,000
What US equity crowdfunding actually raises, who uses it and what it costs.
Massachusetts raises for medicine. Texas raises for property and oil.
What each US state raises private money for, mapped.
California's share of private raises has fallen by a third
Texas now files more private raises than New York. Florida's share has grown by half.
A tenth of private credit pays in kind
One borrower in five that owes BDCs more than $500m now pays part of its interest by borrowing more.
The advertised raise fills a third as often
More founders are advertising their raises. Advertised raises sell out a third as often.
The placement agent premium is zero
Raises with an agent and raises without one now fill at the same rate.
Advertising private raises has spread south
Where companies advertise their private raises, state by state since 2015.
Fewer investors, larger cheques
The median raise went from ten investors to six, and each one writes more.
Two in five private raises now sell less than half
In 2023 the lines crossed, and more raises sold under half than sold in full.