Norvian Review.By Norvian Capital Partners Norvian Capital Partners

The Ledger / Indicators

The Ledger

Indicators

The numbers we watch, what each one counts, and the piece that explains it.

Fill rate
30.7%

2024 cohort, read November 2026

Fewer private raises sell what they set out to

Share of US operating-company Form D offerings of $5m to $500m, by the year the raise began, that report selling at least 99.9% of the amount offered. Indefinite offerings are excluded.

Raises fully sold, and raises under half sold
US operating companies, offerings of $5m to $500m, by the year the raise began
20%30%40%50%201920202021202220232024The lines crossUnder half sold41.4%Fully sold30.7%
SEC Form D filings; Norvian analysisNorvian Review

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Half-sold
41.4%

2024 cohort, read November 2026

Two in five sell less than half

Share of the same offerings that report selling less than half of the amount offered.

How much of its target the typical raise sold
Median share of the amount offered that was reported sold, by the year the raise began
0%25%50%75%100%201980%2020202192.8%20222023202470.4%
SEC Form D filings; Norvian analysisNorvian Review

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Advertised
15.8%

2025

More raises are advertised

Share of US operating-company raises of $1m to $1bn claiming Rule 506(c), which permits general solicitation if every investor's accreditation is verified.

Raises filed under Rule 506(c), the exemption that allows advertising
Share of US operating-company raises of $1m to $1bn, by the year the raise began
0%5%10%15%20157.6%201620172018201920202021202220232024202515.8%Up every year since 2020
SEC Form D filings; Norvian analysisNorvian Review

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Investors per raise
6

2025

Fewer investors write each round

Median number of investors reported on US operating-company Form D offerings of $1m to $1bn.

Investors in the median raise
US operating-company raises of $1m to $1bn, by the year the raise began
05102015201720192021202320252021: tenInvestors per raise6
SEC Form D filings; Norvian analysisNorvian Review

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Paid in kind
10.3%

Quarter to 30 June 2026

A tenth of private credit pays in kind

Share of the principal of term loans held by business development companies that carries a payment-in-kind rate, for the 156 BDCs that reported in both quarters.

Borrowers paying some interest in kind, by how much they owe
Share of borrowers with at least one PIK term loan from a BDC, by total BDC debt, 30 June 2026
Under $10m7.9%$10m to $25m9.7%$25m to $100m11.8%$100m to $500m16.1%Over $500m20.3%
SEC BDC data sets, quarter to 30 June 2026; Norvian analysisNorvian Review

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The queue
140.6 GW

Latest weekly reports

140 gigawatts waiting for money

Capacity in the ERCOT and NYISO queues with a signed interconnection agreement and no construction start: the projects closest to a financing.

Capacity with a grid agreement and no construction started
Gigawatts, by grid and fuel, latest reports
Texas, solar62.1 GWTexas, batteries and other35.4 GWTexas, wind20.3 GWTexas, gas17.3 GWNew York, solar3.2 GWNew York, other1 GW
ERCOT GIS report; NYISO interconnection queue; Norvian analysisNorvian Review

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